In seasonOpen on the board →
Home win
54.7%
386 games playedHome cover
48.6%
against the closing numberOvers
51.8%
avg total 9.2Favourites cover
39.6%
avg margin 3.4Numbers that move
10%
1+ point from open to closeModel ROI
+0.00%
0 picks · +0.0uStandings
sorted by record
| # | Team | W-L | Win% | Diff | ATS | ATS% | O/U | Power | Trend | Form | Model |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York YankeesEast | 18-8 | 6920.0 | +41 | 16-8-1 | 6670.0 | 13-12 | +1548.5 | ▲ 0.0 | WWWLWW | — |
| 2 | Milwaukee BrewersCentral | 17-8 | 6800.0 | +65 | 12-11-1 | 5220.0 | 15-9 | +1550.2 | ▲ 0.0 | WWWWWL | — |
| 3 | Los Angeles DodgersWest | 16-9 | 6400.0 | +29 | 8-15-1 | 3480.0 | 13-11 | +1531.6 | ▲ 0.0 | WWWLLW | — |
| 4 | Philadelphia PhilliesEast | 16-9 | 6400.0 | +22 | 13-10-1 | 5650.0 | 13-11 | +1530.7 | ▲ 0.0 | LWLLLW | — |
| 5 | Pittsburgh PiratesCentral | 15-9 | 6250.0 | +5 | 9-11-3 | 4500.0 | 7-16 | +1515.1 | ▲ 0.0 | WWWLLW | — |
| 6 | San Diego PadresWest | 15-10 | 6000.0 | +18 | 12-10-2 | 5450.0 | 10-14 | +1524.7 | ▲ 0.0 | WWWWWW | — |
| 7 | Kansas City RoyalsCentral | 15-10 | 6000.0 | +16 | 14-9-1 | 6090.0 | 8-16 | +1518.3 | ▲ 0.0 | LLWWLL | — |
| 8 | Cleveland GuardiansCentral | 15-11 | 5770.0 | +11 | 9-15-1 | 3750.0 | 12-13 | +1510.6 | ▲ 0.0 | WLWLWL | — |
| 9 | Tampa Bay RaysEast | 15-11 | 5770.0 | +7 | 9-16 | 3600.0 | 15-10 | +1515.0 | ▲ 0.0 | WWLWWW | — |
| 10 | Boston Red SoxEast | 15-11 | 5770.0 | +1 | 12-13 | 4800.0 | 13-12 | +1511.7 | ▲ 0.0 | WLLLWW | — |
| 11 | Toronto Blue JaysEast | 14-11 | 5600.0 | +29 | 13-10-1 | 5650.0 | 13-11 | +1531.2 | ▲ 0.0 | WLLWWL | — |
| 12 | New York MetsEast | 14-11 | 5600.0 | +9 | 10-12-2 | 4550.0 | 12-12 | +1512.9 | ▲ 0.0 | WWLWLL | — |
| 13 | Atlanta BravesEast | 14-13 | 5190.0 | −5 | 11-14-1 | 4400.0 | 11-15 | +1493.4 | ▲ 0.0 | LWWWLL | — |
| 14 | Arizona DiamondbacksWest | 13-13 | 5000.0 | −19 | 10-15 | 4000.0 | 11-14 | +1485.0 | ▲ 0.0 | WLWLLW | — |
| 15 | Baltimore OriolesEast | 13-14 | 4810.0 | +2 | 12-14 | 4620.0 | 14-12 | +1494.8 | ▲ 0.0 | LWWLLW | — |
| 16 | St. Louis CardinalsCentral | 13-14 | 4810.0 | −4 | 16-9-1 | 6400.0 | 18-8 | +1501.5 | ▲ 0.0 | LLWLWW | — |
| 17 | Texas RangersWest | 12-13 | 4800.0 | −2 | 13-9-2 | 5910.0 | 13-11 | +1495.9 | ▲ 0.0 | WLLLWW | — |
| 18 | Houston AstrosWest | 12-13 | 4800.0 | −23 | 13-9-2 | 5910.0 | 7-17 | +1487.9 | ▲ 0.0 | WLWLLL | — |
| 19 | Seattle MarinersWest | 12-14 | 4620.0 | −19 | 10-14-1 | 4170.0 | 17-8 | +1484.8 | ▲ 0.0 | WWLWLL | — |
| 20 | AthleticsWest | 12-14 | 4620.0 | −27 | 13-12 | 5200.0 | 15-10 | +1480.8 | ▲ 0.0 | WLWWLW | — |
| 21 | Chicago White SoxCentral | 12-15 | 4440.0 | −8 | 11-15 | 4230.0 | 14-12 | +1486.4 | ▲ 0.0 | LLLWLW | — |
| 22 | Chicago CubsCentral | 11-15 | 4230.0 | +18 | 10-14-1 | 4170.0 | 15-10 | +1502.4 | ▲ 0.0 | LLWWLW | — |
| 23 | Detroit TigersCentral | 11-15 | 4230.0 | −10 | 14-9-2 | 6090.0 | 10-15 | +1494.8 | ▲ 0.0 | LWWWWW | — |
| 24 | San Francisco GiantsWest | 11-16 | 4070.0 | −16 | 13-11-2 | 5420.0 | 15-11 | +1477.4 | ▲ 0.0 | WWLLLL | — |
| 25 | Cincinnati RedsCentral | 11-16 | 4070.0 | −66 | 11-15 | 4230.0 | 15-11 | +1456.3 | ▲ 0.0 | LLLLWL | — |
| 26 | Washington NationalsEast | 10-15 | 4000.0 | −12 | 12-11-1 | 5220.0 | 12-12 | +1480.3 | ▲ 0.0 | LLLWWW | — |
| 27 | Minnesota TwinsCentral | 10-15 | 4000.0 | −14 | 11-12-1 | 4780.0 | 14-10 | +1468.4 | ▲ 0.0 | WLLWLL | — |
| 28 | Miami MarlinsEast | 10-16 | 3850.0 | −13 | 11-14 | 4400.0 | 16-9 | +1480.1 | ▲ 0.0 | LLLWWL | — |
| 29 | Los Angeles AngelsWest | 8-17 | 3200.0 | +11 | 15-9 | 6250.0 | 10-14 | +1490.6 | ▲ 0.0 | WWLLLW | — |
| 30 | Colorado RockiesWest | 6-20 | 2310.0 | −46 | 13-10-2 | 5650.0 | 13-12 | +1438.6 | ▲ 0.0 | LLLLLL | — |
Power ratings
vs a neutral opponent
- 1MIL+1550.2#2
- 2NYY+1548.5#1
- 3LAD+1531.6#3
- 4TOR+1531.2#11
- 5PHI+1530.7#4
- 6SD+1524.7#6
- 7KC+1518.3#7
- 8PIT+1515.1#5
- 9TB+1515.0#9
- 10NYM+1512.9#12
- 11BOS+1511.7#10
- 12CLE+1510.6#8
- 13CHC+1502.4#22
- 14STL+1501.5#16
The rating is the margin the model expects against a league-average opponent on a neutral field. Two teams four points apart should meet at roughly a four-point spread.
Margin of victory
how games actually finish
Where the mass sits is why key numbers matter: a spread sitting on a common margin is worth far more than half a point either side of it.
League tendencies
- Home advantage0.22 goals/runs
- Typical total8.6
- Game-to-game noise±4.4 on the margin
- Best hold on the board4.05%
On the board
15 games
| Start / result | Matchup | Spread | Total | Best away | Best home | Model edge | Move | 24h | Money | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, Sep 15 | ||||||||||
| 22:401.7h | +2.1 | 8.5 | −235 | +205 | — | ▲ 0.8LAD | — | even | 4.0% | |
| 22:401.7h | −1.5 | 8.8 | +130 | −150 | — | — | — | even | 4.2% | |
| 22:401.7h | −1.5 | 8.1 | +190 | −220 | — | — | — | TB +11STEAM | 4.2% | |
| 22:401.7h | +1.8 | 7.5 | −215 | +185 | — | ▼ 0.5PIT | — | MIL +8RLM | 4.0% | |
| 22:451.8h | +1.8 | 7.9 | −220 | +205 | — | — | — | PHI +13STEAM | 4.2% | |
| 23:072.1h | −1.5 | 8.4 | +124 | −135 | — | — | — | TOR +42STEAM | 4.0% | |
| 23:102.2h | −1.5 | 8.2 | +120 | −125 | — | — | — | BAL +19 | 1.0% | |
| 23:402.7h | −1 | 8.5 | +120 | −135 | — | — | — | CHC +21 | 4.0% | |
| 23:402.7h | +1.6 | 7.7 | −160 | +150 | — | — | — | MIN +6STEAM | 4.0% | |
| 23:452.8h | −1.5 | 8.0 | +148 | −160 | — | — | — | STL +42STEAM | 4.0% | |
| Wed, Sep 16 | ||||||||||
| 00:053.1h | −1.5 | 7.5 | +118 | −130 | — | ▼ 3.0TEX | — | BOS +21RLMSTEAM | 3.9% | |
| 00:103.2h | −1.5 | 7.8 | +140 | −140 | — | — | — | KC +35STEAM | 3.8% | |
| 00:403.7h | +1.6 | 11.2 | −188 | +170 | — | — | — | SD +23 | 4.0% | |
| 01:384.6h | +1.6 | 8.1 | −165 | +148 | — | — | — | SEA +25 | 3.9% | |
| 01:404.7h | −1.5 | 8.5 | +128 | −135 | — | — | — | ARI +20RLM | 4.0% | |
Recent results
closed and graded
| Game | Score | Closing spread | Covered | Total | O/U | Model side | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8–7 | −1.5 | MIA | 8.5 | Over | — | no position | |
| 6–4 | +1.5 | LAA | 7.5 | Over | — | no position | |
| 7–8 | +2.5 | COL | 11.0 | Over | — | no position | |
| 2–1 | −1.5 | SF | 8.0 | Under | — | no position | |
| 3–8 | +1.5 | NYY | 8.5 | Over | — | no position | |
| 7–3 | −1.5 | CHC | 9.5 | Over | — | no position | |
| 1–2 | −1.5 | BAL | 8.5 | Under | — | no position | |
| 5–6 | −1.5 | DET | 7.5 | Over | — | no position | |
| 3–7 | −1.5 | CWS | 7.0 | Over | — | no position | |
| 1–4 | +1.5 | LAD | 7.5 | Under | — | no position | |
| 4–6 | +1.5 | SD | 7.5 | Over | — | no position | |
| 6–7 | −1.5 | TEX | 8.0 | Over | — | no position |