Money flow
Where the tickets are, and where the money is.
Most bets are small and most money is not. When a side holds 30% of the tickets but 55% of the handle, a few large accounts have taken a position — and that gap, not the ticket count, is what moves a number.
Handle against tickets
| Start | Game | Split | Gap | Line move | Flags | Handle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:154d | NEBUND Tickets67%33% Handle2%98% Divergence −65.0 pts toward UND | +65 UND | −24.5 → −24.5 | — | — | |
| 00:004d | TCUARST Tickets65%35% Handle1%99% Divergence −64.0 pts toward ARST | +64 ARST | −20.5 → −20.5 | — | — | |
| 16:304d | WISEMU Tickets83%17% Handle21%79% Divergence −62.0 pts toward EMU | +62 EMU | −24.5 → −24.5 | — | — | |
| 02:303d | OREPRST Tickets76%24% Handle20%80% Divergence −56.0 pts toward PRST | +56 PRST | −58 → −57 | RLM | — | |
| 16:004d | MINNAKR Tickets79%21% Handle23%77% Divergence −56.0 pts toward AKR | +56 AKR | −26.8 → −24.5 | RLM | — | |
| 19:304d | MICHUTEP Tickets69%31% Handle13%87% Divergence −56.0 pts toward UTEP | +56 UTEP | −36.5 → −35.5 | RLM | — | |
| 02:004d | BSUSDAK Tickets50%50% Handle100%0% Divergence +50.0 pts toward BSU | +50 BSU | −23 → −24.5 | — | — | |
| 20:055d | DENJAX Tickets38%62% Handle88%12% Divergence +50.0 pts toward DEN | +50 DEN | −2.5 → −2.5 | — | — | |
| 17:005d | HOUCIN Tickets41%59% Handle85%15% Divergence +44.0 pts toward HOU | +44 HOU | −2.5 → −2.5 | RLM | — | |
| 22:004d | ODUECU Tickets44%56% Handle1%99% Divergence −43.0 pts toward ECU | +43 ECU | −2.5 → −2.5 | RLM | — | |
| 19:304d | UTAHUSU Tickets77%23% Handle39%61% Divergence −38.0 pts toward USU | +38 USU | −27.5 → −28.3 | — | — | |
| 22:004d | APPCHAR Tickets62%38% Handle24%76% Divergence −38.0 pts toward CHAR | +38 CHAR | −20.5 → −17.5 | RLM | — | |
| 23:304d | CSUBYU Tickets21%79% Handle58%42% Divergence +37.0 pts toward CSU | +37 CSU | +20.5 → +17.8 | RLM | — | |
| 03:004d | SJSUFRES Tickets41%59% Handle4%96% Divergence −37.0 pts toward FRES | +37 FRES | +7.5 → +6.5 | RLM | — | |
| 17:005d | ATLCAR Tickets15%85% Handle50%50% Divergence +35.0 pts toward ATL | +35 ATL | −1.5 → +2.5 | — | — | |
| 17:004d | CMUWYO Tickets53%47% Handle87%13% Divergence +34.0 pts toward CMU | +34 CMU | −1.5 → −1.5 | — | — | |
| 23:304d | OKLAUNM Tickets77%23% Handle43%57% Divergence −34.0 pts toward UNM | +34 UNM | −22 → −22.5 | — | — | |
| 23:454d | TENNKENN Tickets97%3% Handle64%36% Divergence −33.0 pts toward KENN | +33 KENN | −35 → −35.5 | — | — |
Reverse line moves
- ▼ 3.8
- Public 62% on APP, number moved 3.0 toward CHAR▲ 3.0
- ▼ 2.8
- Public 100% on MONT, number moved 2.8 toward ORST▼ 2.8
- Public 79% on MINN, number moved 2.3 toward AKR▲ 2.3
- ▲ 2.0
- Public 87% on WMU, number moved 2.0 toward RICE▼ 2.0
- ▲ 2.0
- ▲ 2.0
- ▲ 1.8
Steam
No steam right now.
Handle by league
Sources publish the share of money per game as a percentage, not a total in dollars, so there is nothing here to divide between leagues. The divergence board above is the same signal without the dollar amount.
Does the crowd cover?
The dashed line is 52.4% — the break-even rate at a standard −110 price. Below it, backing the crowd loses money even when it wins more than half its bets.
Where the sharp action shows up
| Divergent | Reverse | Steam | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NCAAF | 60% | 54% | — |
| NFL | 56% | 14% | — |
Divergent means handle and tickets disagree by ten points or more. Thin markets flag more often — fewer, larger bets move the split faster.
Book behaviour
| Book | Hold | Best price | Quotes |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 4.29% | 22% | 430 |
| Fanatics | 4.36% | 16% | 530 |
| bet365 | 4.55% | 24% | 508 |
| Caesars | 4.60% | 17% | 366 |
| DraftKings | 4.83% | 19% | 502 |
| FanDuel | 4.93% | 16% | 506 |
Hold is the average margin across this book’s own two-sided quotes; best price is how often it posts the top number on a side. Both are counted off the board above, so a book that has not quoted today is not listed. Handle share is not published per book by anyone, so it is not shown.
Reading the splits
Tickets vs handle
Tickets count bets; handle counts dollars. The public bets small and often, so a side can hold 70% of tickets and under half the money. The gap between the two rows is the whole signal.
Reverse line movement
When 75% of tickets are on a favourite and the number moves toward the underdog anyway, the book is respecting money it did not want. That is the classic read — and it is a hint, never a guarantee.
The honest caveat
Splits are noisy and every flag on this page is graded against results in the table above rather than asserted. If the sharp-side cover rate sits near 50%, that is what the page will say. The model page holds the same standard.