MLBTB@NYY−1.5−175WNBALVA@GSV−1.5—MLBMIL@SD+1.5−110MLBCLE@CWS+1.5−105WNBAGSV@LVA−4.5—WNBAGSV@LVA——WNBAATL@NYL——NFLBUF@LAR−3.5−175▼1.0WNBANYL@ATL——WNBALVA@GSV——NBADEN@LAC+5.5+185▲3.0MLBMIL@LAD−1.5−155NBAOKC@HOU+2.5+120▼2.0NBABOS@PHI−10.5−450▼5.3NBATOR@DET−12−505▼1.5NBAMIL@IND−7.5−295▲1.0NBAMIA@ORL−7.5−280▼5.0NBAATL@DAL−1.5−115NBAWAS@NOP−1.5−120▼4.0NBASAC@SAS−13.5−650▲0.5NBACHA@MEM−2.5−140▼1.0NBAMIN@CHI−6.5−225▼8.0NBAPOR@GSW+1.5+105NBAUTA@PHX−4.5−180NBADEN@LAL−3.5−155▲2.0NCAAFUK@OKLA−6.5−265NCAAFLOU@SYR+14.5+475▲2.0NCAAFND@BYU+10.5+325▼1.0

The wire / Market report

Market reportOctober 21, 2026

Market report: 2 arbitrage windows and where the sharp money went

Book-to-book price gaps, which leagues the sharp money actually shows up in, and whether backing the crowd covered.

Line movement told a clear story this week. Across 249 games on the board, 2 markets are currently priced far enough apart between books to lock a return, and the cheapest hold available averages out well under what a single-book bettor pays.

Open arbitrage

GameMarketReturnBooks
TB at CARmoneyline+13.04%DraftKings / FanDuel
CIN at BALmoneyline+0.63%BetMGM / DraftKings

Where the sharp action is

LeagueDivergent gamesReverse movesSteam
NFL100%33.3%100%
NHL100%33.3%100%
WNBA60%100%80%
MLB58.3%0%91.7%
NBA0%0%100%
NCAAF0%undefined%100%

Fading the crowd

Ticket shareGamesCover rate
50–60%977.8%
60–70%944.4%
70–80%742.9%
80%+10%

Cover rate is measured on the side holding the ticket majority. A number within a point or so of 50% is noise; it takes a persistent gap across thousands of games before "fade the public" is a strategy rather than a slogan.

Assembled by the rule-based generator from a snapshot of the board. Prices move; the figures above are what the market showed when this was written.