Market reportOctober 4, 2026
Market report: 3 arbitrage windows and where the sharp money went
Book-to-book price gaps, which leagues the sharp money actually shows up in, and whether backing the crowd covered.
Line movement told a clear story this week. Across 326 games on the board, 3 markets are currently priced far enough apart between books to lock a return, and the cheapest hold available averages out well under what a single-book bettor pays.
Open arbitrage
| Game | Market | Return | Books |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI at CHI | moneyline | +14.49% | BetMGM / FanDuel |
| TEX at OKLA | moneyline | +4.62% | BetMGM / DraftKings |
| DAL at SEA | spread | +0.71% | DraftKings / DraftKings |
Where the sharp action is
| League | Divergent games | Reverse moves | Steam |
|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 100% | 50% | 100% |
| NHL | 100% | 33.3% | 75% |
| MLB | 75% | 0% | 100% |
| WNBA | 66.7% | 50% | 66.7% |
| NCAAF | 0% | 100% | 100% |
Fading the crowd
| Ticket share | Games | Cover rate |
|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 21 | 52.4% |
| 60–70% | 10 | 60% |
| 70–80% | 3 | 66.7% |
| 80%+ | 7 | 57.1% |
Cover rate is measured on the side holding the ticket majority. A number within a point or so of 50% is noise; it takes a persistent gap across thousands of games before "fade the public" is a strategy rather than a slogan.
Assembled by the rule-based generator from a snapshot of the board. Prices move; the figures above are what the market showed when this was written.