Market reportSeptember 30, 2026
Market report: 2 arbitrage windows and where the sharp money went
Book-to-book price gaps, which leagues the sharp money actually shows up in, and whether backing the crowd covered.
Here's how the market moved this week. Across 225 games on the board, 2 markets are currently priced far enough apart between books to lock a return, and the cheapest hold available averages out well under what a single-book bettor pays.
Open arbitrage
| Game | Market | Return | Books |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI at CHI | moneyline | +14.49% | BetMGM / FanDuel |
| DAL at SEA | spread | +0.71% | DraftKings / DraftKings |
Where the sharp action is
| League | Divergent games | Reverse moves | Steam |
|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 100% | 0% | 66.7% |
| MLB | 100% | undefined% | 100% |
| NHL | 100% | undefined% | 100% |
| NCAAF | 100% | 0% | 100% |
| WNBA | 50% | 50% | 100% |
Fading the crowd
| Ticket share | Games | Cover rate |
|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 15 | 46.7% |
| 60–70% | 9 | 55.6% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 50% |
| 80%+ | 6 | 50% |
Cover rate is measured on the side holding the ticket majority. A number within a point or so of 50% is noise; it takes a persistent gap across thousands of games before "fade the public" is a strategy rather than a slogan.
Assembled by the rule-based generator from a snapshot of the board. Prices move; the figures above are what the market showed when this was written.