Market reportSeptember 25, 2026
Market report: 5 arbitrage windows and where the sharp money went
Book-to-book price gaps, which leagues the sharp money actually shows up in, and whether backing the crowd covered.
Line movement told a clear story this week. Across 267 games on the board, 5 markets are currently priced far enough apart between books to lock a return, and the cheapest hold available averages out well under what a single-book bettor pays.
Open arbitrage
| Game | Market | Return | Books |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA at WAS | moneyline | +24.71% | BetMGM / FanDuel |
| PHI at CHI | moneyline | +17.01% | BetMGM / FanDuel |
| TEX at TENN | moneyline | +3.34% | DraftKings / bet365 |
| UAB at ULL | moneyline | +2.18% | FanDuel / Caesars |
| BAL at NYY | spread | +1.80% | DraftKings / bet365 |
Where the sharp action is
| League | Divergent games | Reverse moves | Steam |
|---|---|---|---|
| NCAAF | 100% | 0% | 100% |
| WNBA | 66.7% | 20% | 83.3% |
| NFL | 50% | 50% | 100% |
| MLB | 50% | undefined% | 100% |
Fading the crowd
| Ticket share | Games | Cover rate |
|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 12 | 50% |
| 60–70% | 8 | 37.5% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 50% |
| 80%+ | 6 | 50% |
Cover rate is measured on the side holding the ticket majority. A number within a point or so of 50% is noise; it takes a persistent gap across thousands of games before "fade the public" is a strategy rather than a slogan.
Assembled by the rule-based generator from a snapshot of the board. Prices move; the figures above are what the market showed when this was written.