Market reportSeptember 18, 2026
Market report: 5 arbitrage windows and where the sharp money went
Book-to-book price gaps, which leagues the sharp money actually shows up in, and whether backing the crowd covered.
The books repriced fast this week. The tape: Across 204 games on the board, 5 markets are currently priced far enough apart between books to lock a return, and the cheapest hold available averages out well under what a single-book bettor pays.
Open arbitrage
| Game | Market | Return | Books |
|---|---|---|---|
| WVU at UVA | moneyline | +104.73% | Caesars / Fanatics |
| ASU at KU | moneyline | +39.50% | DraftKings / Caesars |
| OHIO at USA | moneyline | +4.67% | DraftKings / bet365 |
| BOS at TEX | moneyline | +2.86% | bet365 / DraftKings |
| ATH at CLE | moneyline | +2.13% | Caesars / FanDuel |
Where the sharp action is
| League | Divergent games | Reverse moves | Steam |
|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 75% | 50% | 87.5% |
| NCAAF | 50% | 0% | 100% |
| WNBA | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| NFL | 0% | 0% | 100% |
Fading the crowd
| Ticket share | Games | Cover rate |
|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 7 | 85.7% |
| 60–70% | 2 | 100% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 50% |
| 80%+ | 5 | 60% |
Cover rate is measured on the side holding the ticket majority. A number within a point or so of 50% is noise; it takes a persistent gap across thousands of games before "fade the public" is a strategy rather than a slogan.
Assembled by the rule-based generator from a snapshot of the board. Prices move; the figures above are what the market showed when this was written.